Chief Wiggum: [sees Fat Tony and his mobsters dragging a body wrapped in a sheet to the lake] Uh sorry, sorry, no dumping in the lake! We’re suppose to say that, after 300 throws, whatever those outcomes, the probability of getting Heads on the 301st throw is one half. Certainly far before, say, one nonillion—there is no world in which that happens (feel free to collaborate billions of coin-flippers to test this, so it’s not a matter of running out of time). [Laughs nervously] Oh, fun is so fun. Krusty: Ow, my schnoz! That's a great word. Types of events, however, do repeat. Thank you for asking.

'Cause I can't tell if you're old-fashioned, you're paranoid, or just a fucking asshole.”, “Jesus fuckin' Christ. Six in a row, by the way, is about the longest sequence you should expect (in the technical sense of the word) to get of Heads or Tails in 100 flips. Fat Tony is sometimes hilarious and sometimes menacing. I... About Us | Copyright Inquiry | Privacy Policy | Contact Us. (And we can use another formula to see that, theoretically, we’d expect it take 2.5353012005×1030 throws on average to get 100 Heads in a row: (2^(100+1))–2.
I'm Barney Gumble. Not zero, but might as well be. Click to share on Facebook (Opens in new window), Click to share on Twitter (Opens in new window), Click to share on LinkedIn (Opens in new window), Click to share on Reddit (Opens in new window), Click to share on Tumblr (Opens in new window), Click to share on Pinterest (Opens in new window), Click to share on Pocket (Opens in new window), Click to share on Telegram (Opens in new window), Click to share on WhatsApp (Opens in new window), Click to share on Skype (Opens in new window), Click to email this to a friend (Opens in new window), The Magic of Meaning – (Words, Mental Causation, Experience, Mind-Brain, Behavior). George Carlin Comedian. We use cookies to ensure the best user experience and to better understand how visitors use this website. We're putting two dollars on the third race. He's always one step ahead of Chief Wiggum, which isn't all that hard to do when you think about it. Eat My Shorts is in the fifth race! They like...cigarettes?Bart: I guess that's okay.Fat Tony: Now, what if instead of giving them away, you sold them at a price that was practically giving them away. The interpretation of probability is one of the most important such foundational problems.

Terms of Use • Discover and share Fat Tony Simpsons Quotes. Barring that, one might at least try to understand the tools. You wouldn't happen to know anything about a cigarette truck tha... You're all under arrest for the murder of Seymour Skinner! NOTE: I’ve written a follow-up to this post, in which I dig yet deeper in an effort to uproot the naive intuition in question; the intuition survived, but it was fun digging: “Anthropic Bias (Ch 2, Part 2): Fine-Tuning in Cosmology & 100 Heads in a Row.”, I wonder what, exactly, is meant both here and in the Wikipedia article by “possible.”. Certainly this would be case if you threw it another 100 and then another 100 and another 100, and it continues to come up on the same side. Homer: Actually I'm not Homer Simpson. Sorry, your blog cannot share posts by email. I’m of course even more skeptical about flipping one thousand or one million or one trillion Heads, though all of those are mathematically intelligible. Funny Friendship. Minnesota Vikings apparel? Among the immense number of combinations of fourteen letters (26^14 or about 10^20), not more than a few thousand correspond to words. And yet, any large sequence, even the “random-appearing” ones, will be extremely rare and indeed, given enough flips, perhaps as few as 100, will be the only time that sequence ever occurs on this or any other planet.). This distinction between probability models and the real world is one I often struggle with in my ongoing attempts to understand the tense relations between formal probability, intuition (what I sometimes call informal probability)3, complexity, and epistemology (i.e., belief, opinion, knowledge). So long as you are clear about which coins and which flips before you know the results of those flips, you’re never going to get 100 Heads. We are bleeding red ink, which is the only thing we should not be bleeding. You gotta learn to listen, Lou.

Fat Tony: Well, suppose you got a large starving family.

You and I might live in different worlds, but we live in the same reality. Lady: Some large men to see you, sir.Skinner: Uh, I don't have an appointment with any large men...Fat Tony: Are you Skinner?Skinner: I'm Principal Skinner, yes! With Robert Mammone, Gyton Grantley, Shane Jacobson, Madeleine West. Steal a Loaf of Bread. Homer: You can't kill me. Uh, say, are you guys crooks?

If you believe that any Site Content infringes upon your copyright, please notify us by email support@quotecatalog.com. For an undercooked, but I think adequate, example, the probability is zero for randomly pulling the number 2 from a bag containing the real numbers between 1.5 and 2.5. Fat Tony: Milhouse, may I borrow your three-ring binder?

Its form shapes how those who use it see the world. Though you can say things like, “there’s a 1-2^(-5), or 97% chance, of getting at least one Heads in five flips of a fair coin.”. Expectation, or to avoid that technical term, hope seems to play a critical role here: you won’t get the sequence of flips you hope for. I presume the rational Dr. John would also be skeptical in that situation. Okay, let's see ... wait a minute, you little punk! Twenty in a row should be doable—that’ll happen in about one in 1.05 millions runs. (At which point perhaps you might try a different route and measure the physical properties of the coin itself.) (To underscore the independence of the flip events, imagine throwing the first four Heads today, then returning ten years from now to throw the fifth toss.). I wish I was dead. Mitch …

© 2020 TV Fanatic Chief Wiggum: I thought that too, until he said yard trimmings. Hilarious. But Taleb’s example urges us to go further than suspecting fowl play. Tony Soprano: Why don't you get the fuck outta here before I shove your quotations book up your fat fuckin' ass?” — Tony Soprano , The Sopranos , Season 2 : Do Not Resuscitate Chief Wiggum: You wouldn't happen to know anything about a cigarette truck that was hijacked outside of town, would you?Fat Tony: What's a truck?Chief Wiggum: Don't play dumb with me! Using this formula, we see that we need about 10^31 flips in order to expect the longest string of Heads or Tails to be 100. I'm also a TV writer, which by default makes me a douchebag.”, “Why do pissin, shittin', and fuckin' all happen within' a two-inch radius?”, “Anthony is a cunt hair away from owning all of Northern Jersey.

Groucho Marx Comedian. Fat Tony: Call that doctor that owes us a favor. Would that be a crime, Bart? Slightly remarkable is the fact that I just now picked up a quarter to see how many Heads I might get. We're putting two dollars on the third race. HTTHHHTTTTHHHHHTTTTTT…. This post falls within a larger line of questioning motivated by the following naive but, for me, unshakable observation: Getting two Heads in a row from a fair coin is unremarkable. I would say the game is certainly fixed. Probability is a tool.

(For the record, seven is the number of flips you need to execute in order to breech 99% confidence in landing at least one Heads: 1 – (1/2)^7 or .9921875. Funny Inspirational. Fat Tony: Fine, I will put my *yard trimmings* in a car compactor. Nelson: Your dad's a mob boss? Call that doctor that owes us a favor. [Laughs nervously] There is no Mafia! Homer: Actually I'm not Barney Gumble. He also lamented the betrayal of a friendship with, "In the strip club of my heart, you held da key to da champagne room.

These two modes may influence one another, and may overlap in part, but they are distinct.

| In fact, what I seem to be claiming here, if I understand myself correctly, is that one of the facts, or features, entailed by a coin’s being fair is that such sequences are impossible.6 Still, to be clear, and if we take seriously (or at least wish to remain consistent with) the theoretical possibility of such a sequence, there is no pattern here, no natural rule that’s being enforced, but only the observer-dependent illusion of one, even if that observer gets lucky enough to guess subsequent flips correctly by believing in the apparent pattern. It strikes me as meaningful (if insomnia-inducing) work.

Fat Tony: Sadly, my Anna Maria was whacked by natural causes. Unless, again, it does so too tidily; e.g. When he beat the shit out of that guy, I went to the class, I told them how tough my father was.”, “Hear about the Chinese godfather? In the strip club of my heart, you held da key to da champagne room.
Shape the tools and you shape the world. Further, any sequence involving what would count to a human as a recognizable pattern—i.e., that gives the impression a reliable prediction may be made—would also suggest foul play: HTHTHTHTHTHT….

Louie: The same Barney Gumble who keeps taking pictures of my sister.

The real world, though it has enough regularities for, say, consciousness to have evolved, is largely a complex mess full of uncertainty, irrational numbers (figuratively speaking), and other things tough for us humans to make sense of. 2, Dr. John refers to the question as trivial and gives the mathematically correct answer of one half. But clearly this is not a fair coin. Fat Tony: Fine, I will put my *yard trimmings* in a car compactor. (Michael and Fat Tony invite the Simpson family over for dinner. Marge: Oh, you're a widower. Make it a good one.Bart: Eat my shorts!Fat Tony: Eat My Shorts? However, any particular infinite sequence of heads and tails has probability zero of being the exact outcome of the (infinite) experiment.”4]. It finds its way, moreover, into much of philosophy.

Dan: That's a great word. It figures prominently in such staples of metaphysics as causation and laws of nature.

I was just kiddin' around! Homer: Ohhh yeahhh.

Mark Twain Author. Garfield or L... We'd love to!

I’ll keep at it. In his book The Black Swan1, Nassim Nicholas Taleb, a fellow urban slow-walker, imagines posing the following question to two characters, the rational & educated Dr. John and the intuitive & streetwise Fat Tony: Assume that a coin is fair, i.e., has an equal probability of coming up heads or tails when flipped. Dr. John refers to the question as trivial and gives the mathematically correct answer of one half. : THTHTHTHTHTHTHTHTH… . Ohhh, Fat Tony! That’s 1 in 1,267,650,600,228,229,401,496,703,205,376. Eugene Ormandy Conductor.

He hates Mondays. It can even take center stage in the philosophy of logic, the philosophy of language, and the philosophy of religion.

Fat Tony, a word?

First try, I got five in a row. Your notice should include (a) a description of the copyrighted work that you claim has been infringed; (b) the URL where the allegedly infringing Site Content is located; (c) your full name, postal address, telephone number, and email address; (d) a statement that you have a good faith belief that the use of the allegedly infringing material on our Sites is not authorized; (e) your physical or electronic signature; and (f) a statement that you are the copyright owner or an authorized agent of the copyright owner.

We can all relate.